I really believe that reporters (deliberately maybe) fail to describe the political/military situation in the Middle East, and in this way we are left even more baffled after watching the 21:00 news than if we watched "desperate housewives" on the opposite TV channel.
So, (without having access to any magic orb) and only based on the information publicly available, I decided to assemble my view and write down a summary analysis of the political situation in the Middle East.
My thinking is rather simple: world powers do not choose their path at random, but choose to promote the policies that are to their best interests (political, economic and strategic). Yes, it is shocking but true! Foreign policy, diplomacy and power projection have nothing to do with democracy and humanism!
To this effect this brief analysis comes in two parts :
- A Multi Angled Analysis section that aims to reveal the interests and viewpoints of all players.
- A Sum of All Forces that is pure speculation on how the interests revealed in part one will play out their cards in the near future.
PART I: Multi Angled Analysis:
A Clauzewitzian/Kissinger style ("Real politic") analysis of the present situation, the motives and the aims of each player:
Israeli Viewpoint:
Israeli main Strategic targets are the following:
Israeli main Strategic targets are the following:
- Secure the North and South borders of Israel.
- Prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power at all costs.
- Prevent Syria from falling to Islamic hands at all costs.
- Secure and exploit the newly found Oil and Gas reserves in the Israeli EEZ in the mediterranean sea.
- Partner with Greece to exploit Oil and Gas reserves in the Greek Exclusive Economic Zone.
The Israeli situation has changed dramatically in the last 24 months.
The Arab Spring has left Israel afloat in a sea of enemies. Even Egypt, that was once Israel' s stable "good neighbour", is gradually sifting towards Islamic government.
The Arab Spring has left Israel afloat in a sea of enemies. Even Egypt, that was once Israel' s stable "good neighbour", is gradually sifting towards Islamic government.
And if you think things are bad in the South, things in the North are even worse....
Assad's Syria, another former "good neighbour", is also very close to turning islamic as Turkey backed Syrian Rebels threaten to overthrow Assad's regime. If the rebels win the war in Syria, then Turkey, Syria and Egypt would create a unified muslim controled space all around Israel, and Jordan could easily be the next state to destabilize and join the islamic brotherhood.
To make things even worse Turkey is emerging as a local super power and is obviously bidding to become the leader of the muslim world, trying to reinstate a new Chalifate. Turkish power also cancels all economic growth for Israel, as Turkey's claim over the Aegean sea gas and oil reserves, stops cold all combined Greek and Israeli ventures.
Adding to the predicament comes the news that Iran is seemingly very close to getting the A-bomb!
Such nuclear addition to the most hard core muslim country's arsenal would forever change the world balance of power (not only the balance of power in the middle east) and threatens Israel's own existence.
Such nuclear addition to the most hard core muslim country's arsenal would forever change the world balance of power (not only the balance of power in the middle east) and threatens Israel's own existence.
US Viewpoint :
US Strategic targets are the following:
- The US needs to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power at any cost!
- The US needs to maintain military bases near the ME Oil fields.
- The US needs to have at least one devoted ally in the region with enough ground forces (expendable soldiers) to be able to assist effectively in any regional conflict.
- The US needs to have all Gas and Oil pipelines pass safely from the Oil Fields in ME to the Mediterranean sea, passing through US (directly or indirectly) controlled ground.
- The US needs to keep up military spending and renew stock of weapons in their arsenal (a good sized conflict every decade has been the only proven solution!)
- The US finally needs to have ME countries export Oil mainly in USD. (it also helps when big part of the OIL exports value returns to the US in the forms of armaments payments)
The US has been keeping radio silence the last two months because of the upcoming elections, but whoever comes on top shall have the same above goals in mind. The only difference is that Obama shall be "drawn" to war, while Romney shall "declare" war.
It is my feeling that the agreements with Israelis and the Russians have already been in place, and that everything has currently been placed on hold, awaiting the results of the US elections.
However it is clear that all the strategic objectives above call for the:
It is my feeling that the agreements with Israelis and the Russians have already been in place, and that everything has currently been placed on hold, awaiting the results of the US elections.
However it is clear that all the strategic objectives above call for the:
- Creation of a new Kurdish state.
- Weekening of Turkey's superpower attitude.
- Destruction of Iranian Nuclear facilities.
- A war big enough to jolt US and EU economy out of stagnation.
Russian Viewpoint:
Russian Strategic targets are the following:
Syria is Russia's last remaining ally in the Middle East and hosts the only naval base Moscow has outside the former Soviet Union (The huge base at Tartus, that overlooks the Suez channel).
Russia has protected Assad's regime in Syria from international sanctions and has supplied it with weapons amid an escalating civil war.
- Keep (and hopefully increase) control of the naval base at Tartus Syria (this means Russia has to keep Assad in power no matter what....)
- Increase its military presence in the region.
- Keep OIL prices high.
- Decrease Turkish power that is rivaling Russia in a local level.
Syria is Russia's last remaining ally in the Middle East and hosts the only naval base Moscow has outside the former Soviet Union (The huge base at Tartus, that overlooks the Suez channel).
Russia has protected Assad's regime in Syria from international sanctions and has supplied it with weapons amid an escalating civil war.
- Russian president Putin has openly warned the Turkish Army NOT to enter the Syrian border, because "it would be equivalent to invading Russian soil".
- The russians have also already moved whole army units in Tartus, including anti antiaircraft battalions, tanks, commando units and aircraft carriers.
The Naval base in Tartus is the single biggest military asset outside of Russia, and its importance cannot be overstated. Such asset shall never be left in the hands of an Islamic government, and Russia is prepared to fight to keep Assad in power indefinitely.
Finally, there is one more issue to note: Turkey, during the last 3 years, has been imposing many new controls on Russian ships that pass through the Dardanelles, and has also levied new taxes on Russian shipping & trade.
Such actions would never have been accepted by Russia in the past, and neither have the Russians said their final word about the subject.
Such actions would never have been accepted by Russia in the past, and neither have the Russians said their final word about the subject.
Syrian Viewpoint:
Actually Syria is already split in 3 parts that have different objectives in mind:
Actually Syria is already split in 3 parts that have different objectives in mind:
- Assad : Assad knows his future is at the end of a rope if he looses this war to the rebels. Consequently he rather become president of a small Russian backed puppet state around Tartus than end up hanging by a tree.
- The rebels : The rebels are being heavily backed by the Turkish army, and they have all the momentum by their side. It is now or never, and the longer it takes for them to wipe Assad the closer they get to the never side of the equation.
- The Syrian Kurds : The Syrian Kurds have already achieved full military and political control of northern Syria, because Assad has already come to a deal with them and has officially withdrawn all his armies from Northern Syrian Kurdish territories. This might explain why there is an occasional shelling of Turkish towns from within the Syrian borders. (Surprise... It is NOT Assad's army that is doing this. It is the Kurds!)
Turkish Viewpoint :
Turkish Strategic targets are the following:
Turkish Strategic targets are the following:
- become the leader of the muslim world and a regional super power
- prevent the creation of a Kurdish state at its southern border at all costs (even war)
- contain the Kurds inside Turkey and not allow the Kurdish separationist movement to unfold.
- project power in the Aegean and prevent Greeks to tap into the Oil and gas reserves without Turkey getting its share of the action.
During the last decade Turkey invested serious efforts in becoming the leader of the Islamic world. One might say that Erdogan has in a way tried to reinstate the once mighty Chalifate, and unite all MEA muslims under Turkish political leadership.
In the last few months, Turkey has even assumed an active leading role in destabilizing nearby countries, where it has been supplying the islamist rebels with guns and money (like in the case of the Syrian Rebels).
Turkey has in essence assumed the role of the local superpower, and has been consistently ignoring and questioning US, Russian and Israeli interests.
Turkey has been using its vast army to project its power towards all of its neighbours, to the strong resentment of the US, Israel and Russia, who consider power projection their own exclusive tool of policy.
Last but most importantly, Turkey's eternal strategic dogma is that Turkey shall NOT accept the creation of a Kurdish state in its southern borders and that it is willing to fight against such prospect to the bitter end. This is the case since it is well understood by Turkish leaders that as soon as such a state is born, Turkey shall never again rest in peace for not even one day.
In the last few months, Turkey has even assumed an active leading role in destabilizing nearby countries, where it has been supplying the islamist rebels with guns and money (like in the case of the Syrian Rebels).
Turkey has in essence assumed the role of the local superpower, and has been consistently ignoring and questioning US, Russian and Israeli interests.
Turkey has been using its vast army to project its power towards all of its neighbours, to the strong resentment of the US, Israel and Russia, who consider power projection their own exclusive tool of policy.
Last but most importantly, Turkey's eternal strategic dogma is that Turkey shall NOT accept the creation of a Kurdish state in its southern borders and that it is willing to fight against such prospect to the bitter end. This is the case since it is well understood by Turkish leaders that as soon as such a state is born, Turkey shall never again rest in peace for not even one day.
Kurdish Viewpoint :
The Kurds have only one objective in mind:
The Kurds feel they are only an inch close to getting their own sovereign state for the first time in their people's history. They thus are eager to fight their long time oppressors and become the closest of allies to Israel and the US, in exchange for their freedom.
Since they have already tasted the sweet taste of freedom in northern Iraq where the Kurdish state is already doing its first infant steps, the Kurds are prepared to fight it to the end, no matter how much blood must be spilled in the process.
In this effort the Kurds have for the first time got the strongest of supporters: US and Israel, since the Kurds can offer a huge counterweight to today's islamic expansion, because of :
A Kurdish state, having access to the vast OIL reserves of Mosul, can easily become the strongest state in the middle east as long as it shall also enjoy the support of the Western world.
Such a state can host US bases in a friendly environment, act like the West's strong hand in the Gulf region, keep the Gulf countries at bay and act like the local policeman (cancelling any islamic play in Saudi Arabia or the UAE) and in general function like a balance to the Islamic might.
- create the new Kurdish state and join all their brothers from 4 countries under one flag.
The Kurds feel they are only an inch close to getting their own sovereign state for the first time in their people's history. They thus are eager to fight their long time oppressors and become the closest of allies to Israel and the US, in exchange for their freedom.
Since they have already tasted the sweet taste of freedom in northern Iraq where the Kurdish state is already doing its first infant steps, the Kurds are prepared to fight it to the end, no matter how much blood must be spilled in the process.
In this effort the Kurds have for the first time got the strongest of supporters: US and Israel, since the Kurds can offer a huge counterweight to today's islamic expansion, because of :
- their vast numbers (close to 60M in the whole region are of Kurdish origin)
- their willingness to die for their country
- their excellent fighting spirit
- their people's non arabic and non islamic character
- their geographical distribution that spans from Iran to the Mediterranean
A Kurdish state, having access to the vast OIL reserves of Mosul, can easily become the strongest state in the middle east as long as it shall also enjoy the support of the Western world.
Such a state can host US bases in a friendly environment, act like the West's strong hand in the Gulf region, keep the Gulf countries at bay and act like the local policeman (cancelling any islamic play in Saudi Arabia or the UAE) and in general function like a balance to the Islamic might.
Iranian Viewpoint :
Iran has only one aim:
The day that Iran gets to have the A-bomb is the date when even the mighty Americans and the much hated Israelis shall have to bend down and pray!
Iran is currently frantically moving its nuclear facilities to new underground locations (that are "bomb" proof), and hopes to finish the move within the next 3-6 months, and immunize the Iranian nuclear program from any type of air attack.
After getting the bomb, Iran plans to step up the ante, and lay claim to the souther Iraqi Shi'a territories in a big way!
- To get the A-bomb, and protect its Islamic state from all and any enemies.
The day that Iran gets to have the A-bomb is the date when even the mighty Americans and the much hated Israelis shall have to bend down and pray!
Iran is currently frantically moving its nuclear facilities to new underground locations (that are "bomb" proof), and hopes to finish the move within the next 3-6 months, and immunize the Iranian nuclear program from any type of air attack.
After getting the bomb, Iran plans to step up the ante, and lay claim to the souther Iraqi Shi'a territories in a big way!
EU Viewpoint :
EU objectives have to be rather limited, since the EU can not enforce anything in the region:
EU is a world economic power, but still cannot be regarded as a world superpower, due to the lack of common strategy and common military and defence capabilities.
The game in the ME has been planned without Europe, that was pretty busy with its own economic introspection.
Now Germany and France, have to face the fact that the biggest reshuffling the world has seen after WWII shall be played out without their participation.
- Keep ME Oil flowing through friendly lands
- Keep the EU borders safe
EU is a world economic power, but still cannot be regarded as a world superpower, due to the lack of common strategy and common military and defence capabilities.
The game in the ME has been planned without Europe, that was pretty busy with its own economic introspection.
Now Germany and France, have to face the fact that the biggest reshuffling the world has seen after WWII shall be played out without their participation.
Greek Viewpoint :
Greece has much to gain out the present situation, and many objectives are apparent:
Both France and Germany had pre agreed to let the Greek economy fail back in August 2012, but it seems that nobody had informed them of the planned interventions in the Middle East until the US Foreign Minister visited them in the beginning of the same month.
The August loan got approved hastily, and it became apparent that Greece could NOT be allowed to fail in any way (adding to Germany's frustration!). Any such case could destabilize Greece, and the European Union's borders could return again after 600 years to the gates of Vienna.
Millions of refugees (frustrated Greeks added) could flood Europe, and even the flow of raw materials and power could become difficult. Even worse Greece could fall pray to a hungry Russia, that could bite the Greek "property" right out of Germany's mouth paying for everything in Rubbles and Oil (and at a STEEP discount).
And suddenly only a few days ago, both Germany and France seem to have agreed to a definitive solution top the greek problem. Greece will remain in the Euro, and somehow pay its bills.
Maybe the fact that the whole Israeli government visited Greece in August and a number of economic and military agreements were signed between the two countries, has helped change the mind of chancellor Merkel and president Hollande.
While Turkey will be busy saving its existence, Greece can declare its Exclusive Economic Zone without having to fear Turkey's reactions. Since the GAS and OIL reserves are in huge depths (the technology to harvest such reservers has only been developed the last 5 years) Israel will offer the Know How and become a premium partner in the joint venture!
Seems that everybody can join the party while the bad neighbour is busy trying to fight off the fire that burns his house!
- Get out of the current economic standstill
- Get access to Aegean Oil and Gas reserves
- Increase its strategic importance, and thus get EU financial backing on purely strategic grounds.
- Use the war situation in the ME as a pressure point to pass all necessary economic reforms in the internal front.
- Trade military privileges (to the US, the EU and Israel) with economic help
- Remain neutral
Both France and Germany had pre agreed to let the Greek economy fail back in August 2012, but it seems that nobody had informed them of the planned interventions in the Middle East until the US Foreign Minister visited them in the beginning of the same month.
The August loan got approved hastily, and it became apparent that Greece could NOT be allowed to fail in any way (adding to Germany's frustration!). Any such case could destabilize Greece, and the European Union's borders could return again after 600 years to the gates of Vienna.
Millions of refugees (frustrated Greeks added) could flood Europe, and even the flow of raw materials and power could become difficult. Even worse Greece could fall pray to a hungry Russia, that could bite the Greek "property" right out of Germany's mouth paying for everything in Rubbles and Oil (and at a STEEP discount).
And suddenly only a few days ago, both Germany and France seem to have agreed to a definitive solution top the greek problem. Greece will remain in the Euro, and somehow pay its bills.
Maybe the fact that the whole Israeli government visited Greece in August and a number of economic and military agreements were signed between the two countries, has helped change the mind of chancellor Merkel and president Hollande.
While Turkey will be busy saving its existence, Greece can declare its Exclusive Economic Zone without having to fear Turkey's reactions. Since the GAS and OIL reserves are in huge depths (the technology to harvest such reservers has only been developed the last 5 years) Israel will offer the Know How and become a premium partner in the joint venture!
Seems that everybody can join the party while the bad neighbour is busy trying to fight off the fire that burns his house!
Cypriot Viewpoint :
Cypriots just have to go with the flow, and they have to make the most out of it. They could of course be tempted to get the half of their island back (that is currently under Turkish occupation), if they get the chance to do this while turkey is busy fighting for its life, but they will most probably stay out of trouble...
Egyptian Viewpoint :
Egypt which once was the pillar of stability in the region, is slowly drifting to islamic hands. For the time being it is not governed by firm hands, and there is no clear policy and stance in all the above issues. Egyptians stand divided, and apart from a newly found confidence in its relations with Turkey, there is not much rhythm and coherence in its foreign policy.
Actually Egypt did not have any foreign policy of its own (other than the one dictated by foreign powers) and it will take quite some time for the dust to settle down and Egypt to get its own direction.
For the time being Egypt is not exerting an influence in the region that is equivalent to the size of its army, economy and its population.
Egypt which once was the pillar of stability in the region, is slowly drifting to islamic hands. For the time being it is not governed by firm hands, and there is no clear policy and stance in all the above issues. Egyptians stand divided, and apart from a newly found confidence in its relations with Turkey, there is not much rhythm and coherence in its foreign policy.
Actually Egypt did not have any foreign policy of its own (other than the one dictated by foreign powers) and it will take quite some time for the dust to settle down and Egypt to get its own direction.
For the time being Egypt is not exerting an influence in the region that is equivalent to the size of its army, economy and its population.
Chinese Viewpoint :
China is totaly powerless so far away from its own borders, and is watching everything from a distance. China is Iranian Oil's single biggest consumer, and would want Iran to exit this crisis in one piece, so it could provide Iran with cash and resources.
PART II: Sum of all forces:
how might the situation play out in the next 6-12 months? Well that is very hard to make a serious prediction, but (knowing that i will most probably fail in a large extent) I will do it anyway....
Before I do that, I have to state some basic principles of thought that we must always have in mind.
Before I do that, I have to state some basic principles of thought that we must always have in mind.
Basic Principles:
- Plans do not always play out "as planned": Just remember two words: Vietnam & Afganistan. Plans are what you have before reality kicks in and leaves you and your plans out to hang dry!
- Common interests make old enemies into friends: Your enemy's enemy is your friend, and your enemy's friend is your enemy. Geopolitics, money and oil have no other preferences!
- Religion matters: Islam is a perfectly nice religion. The leaders of the Islamic world however, are not so friendly towards the west, and the West is not friendly to anybody who threatens the free flow of oil to their economies.
- Can we really foretell the future of any conflict? We cannot even foretell the exact speed and course a billard ball will have after its second deflection off the wall of a pool table. So it is pretty much out of the question to really foretell the outcome of any conflict.
- Oil shall always find a way to flow through friendly ground: The superpowers are prepared to pay any price to achieve control over the ground where pipelines are to be laid.
The most probable (improbable!) scenario
- Israel bombs all Iranian nuclear facilities a few days after the US election [update:1/1/13: and Israeli elections) is over and the new presidents/prime ministers are in place.
- Iran answers by a wave of missiles against Tel Aviv, the naval base of Suda in Crete, and other targets. Europe watches the show from their TV sets, while Patriots and s300 missiles light up the skys in a super show.
- Conflict ignites along the Iranian - Iraqi border between Iran, the US and the Kurdish "security forces" and US is "forced" into the war (Obama) or "joins the war effort" (Romney).
- In some mysterious way (Israel could help....), Kurdish PKK and security forces find themselves carrying antiaircraft missiles and anti tank missiles of the latest technology, and the balance of power between them and the Turkish army takes a sudden turn.
- Kurdish forces clash with the turkish army inside Turkey, and Turkey is drawn in a wide civil war, where the Kurds have the added advantage of using military bases outside Turkish ground for regrouping and R&R (in Northern Iraq and Northern Syria)
- The only real choice that Turkey has is the following:
- Should the turkish army wait until the Kurds start the civil war within Turkey, or
- Should the turkish army preemptively strike the Kurds within Syrian or Iraqi ground. Such preemptive strikes however bear the risk of starting Russian / Israeli / US retaliation against Turkey.
- Syria most probably breaks in (at least) two parts:
- a small Syrian puppet state under the protection of Russia (around tartus and maybe including Damascus)
- a Kurdish northern part, to join later on a larger Kurdish state.
- Greeks and Israelis declare the Greek EEZ and start the JV to harvest the Aegean see deep reserves of oil and gas (while Turkey is busy fighting a war).
- Turkey's fate shall be decided on the battlefields of Anatolia. It will either keep its present borders or break in two or three new states (European Turkey, Anatolia and part of new Kurdistan).
Some last NOTES:
Some words of wisdom:
Are the above scenarios of science fiction?
I dont know.... however everything mentioned above stands the test of rational thinking, and so i thought that it would be nice to blog about them!
Live document: This is a "live document" and i might put some small additions in from time to time.
Comments are (not always) welcomed:
Please leave comments to this blog post only if :
- you have read and understood the above
- you have something meaningfull to add to the above you are welcomed, but it should be well written and relevant to international strategy and politics.
- Ethics / religious fanatics and trolls are not welcomed to comment and their posts shall be moderated and not be posted on this blog.
Irrelevant comments shall be deleted!
